Recently, the Development Research Center of the State Council and the World Wide Fund for Nature jointly issued the report “The impact of China’s economic stimulus plan on climate and energy” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). It explained for the first time the four-trillion-dollar investment in energy saving and emission reduction in the near and long term. Impact.

The "Report" stated that 81% of the 4 trillion yuan were invested in new homes and infrastructure facilities, which led to the growth of high-energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel, nonferrous metals, and cement. Therefore, in the short term, the negative impact is However, due to the unsustainable high investment in high-energy-consuming industries and the energy-saving advantages of the completion of the rail transit network, the impact of the RMB 4 trillion investment on energy-saving and emission reduction after 2014 will change from negative to positive.

At the same time, the "Report" predicts that by 2020, four trillion investment will bring about 270 million tons of annual emission reduction capabilities, making China's carbon dioxide emissions from model predictions of 9.63 billion tons fell to 9.36 billion tons.

"This carbon reduction effect will contribute about 10% to the intensity target of 45% reduction in unit GDP to be achieved in 2020." Yang Fuqiang, director of global climate change at the WWF, told this reporter.

Structural emission reduction

In each country’s economic stimulus plan, China’s investment scale is equivalent to nearly US$590 billion, second only to the US’s US$787 billion.

"The purpose of this plan to restore the economy has already been reached. Due to the delay in the construction cycle, its impact will be released during the "12th Five-Year Plan." Therefore, its impact on energy conservation and emission reduction is also urgently needed." Xiamen University, China Energy Lin Boqiang, director of the Center for Economic Research, told reporters that "the results of the assessment will have a certain reference effect on the "12th Five-Year Plan" energy-saving emission reduction."

According to the public information, the specific investment of RMB 4 trillion is: 0.4 trillion yuan for housing security, 0.37 trillion yuan for rural construction, 0.21 trillion yuan for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction, 1.5 trillion yuan for infrastructure construction, 0.15 trillion yuan for social undertakings, and 0.37 for industrial restructuring. Trillion, the reconstruction of Wenchuan 1 trillion.

From this structure, its investment focuses on new housing and infrastructure, with a total investment of 325 million yuan. These infrastructure facilities, especially airports and subways, have a lower GDP return than ordinary fixed-asset investment, so in the short term Energy-saving and emission-reducing pressure is great

In infrastructure investment, 600 billion yuan of railway investment led to 28.3 million tons of steel and 120 million tons of cement consumption, which translates into an energy consumption of 30.6 million tons of standard coal; 6000 billion of road investment has led to 15 million tons of steel, The consumption of 133.5 million tons of cement and 28.35 million tons of asphalt was converted into standard 29,257,000 tons of standard coal; and 300 billion tons of subway and airport investment led to the consumption of 5.55 million tons of steel, 11.2 million tons of cement and 32.2 million tons of concrete. The converted energy consumption is 8.1 million tons of standard coal.

"This measure is still conservative, and the actual investment has exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan." Yang Fuqiang said, "The data show that in 2009 China's total investment in the three projects of railways, highways and urban public transport was as high as 19241.8 billion yuan, the highest in history."

The "Report" pointed out that the high energy-consuming industries driven by these infrastructure constructions have rapidly reversed after a brief slowdown in the months following the worst financial crisis. At the same time, from June 2009, raw coal production and power generation exceeded the highest level.

"This has led to the obstruction of structural emission reduction. The retrogression in this area largely offsets the effectiveness of technology-based energy conservation. Therefore, the country's set constraints on energy conservation cannot be completed as expected," Yang Fuqiang pointed out.

According to statistics, in 2008, 5.2% was completed, and by 2009, it had dropped to 3.61%. In the first half of 2010, the energy-saving index did not fall again.

“From this point of view, 4 trillion yuan, as one dose, will help stimulate economic growth, but from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction, at least within the 12th Five-Year Plan period, its negative effects will gradually be exposed.” An expert who declined to be named pointed out to reporters.

The "Report" revealed that the turning point of energy saving and emission reduction may appear after 2014.

Although in the short term, 4 trillion yuan of investment is not conducive to energy-saving and emission reduction, but in the long term, due to the slowdown in the growth of high-energy-consuming industries, this negative impact will gradually be eliminated.

The "Report" estimates that by 2020, China's energy consumption in the transportation sector may increase from 7.7% of the country's total energy consumption in 2006 to about 12%. After the completion of rail transit, subway and other rail transit networks, it will take a large part. Capacity, with its energy advantage over road traffic, is expected to bring 20% ​​energy savings to the transportation sector, totaling 220 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

At the same time, 210 billion of the 4 trillion are directly invested in the field of energy conservation and environmental protection, of which 100 billion are used for nuclear power construction and 40.79 billion are used for energy conservation.

The latter's leading role should not be underestimated. Studies have shown that expenditures per unit of central government finance for energy conservation can drive social investment in 10 units, that is, a driving factor of 10. Based on this calculation, social investment will be driven by 407.9 billion yuan in the next few years. This capital that will be gradually put into the market will promote the long-term and rapid development of the energy-saving industry.

The "Report" pointed out that investment in the field of energy conservation and nuclear power will bring 51 million tons of carbon dioxide emission reduction effect. Combined with the energy-saving effects of the transportation sector in the past, by 2020, 4 trillion investment will bring about 270 million tons of carbon dioxide emission reduction.

“But this effect is far from enough to reach the 45% carbon intensity target by 2020. China must further increase its energy-saving and emission reduction efforts.” Jiang Kezhen, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told this reporter.

To this end, the "Report" also provides some policy recommendations. The "Report" suggests that "on the one hand, increase investment in energy conservation and carbon reduction and clean energy, on the other hand, accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure so that low-carbon industries can replace traditional high-energy-consuming industries."

The structural adjustment is the most difficult. “The 4 trillion yuan-driven social capital is flooding into high-energy-consuming industries and will be precipitated as social capital, creating a de facto overcapacity, which will inevitably lead to redundant construction.” Lin Boqiang pointed out.

The "Report" emphasizes that new projects in the field of high energy consumption should be strictly examined, especially in the ferrous metals, nonferrous metals, chemical and cement industries. In the 4 trillion investment project, we should make full use of the existing high energy-consuming industrial production capacity, and give priority to the purchase of products after the energy-saving transformation.

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December 10, 2023