Infrastructure investment, as one of the important engines of economic growth, was less than expected in the second half of last year. This year, under the guidance of a proactive fiscal policy and with the promotion of the PPP model, infrastructure investment has become one of the starting points for local governments to promote economic growth. Looking forward to the first half of this year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to reach 20%, which is expected to be around 17% for the whole year.

Providing support for economic growth <br><br> The latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) was 1,187.8 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4% over the previous year. The growth rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points from January to November.

According to Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, the general public budget expenditure for 2016 was 1,874.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% over the previous year, which was lower than the 6.7% budget value at the beginning of the year and also lower than the annual GDP growth rate of 6.7%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment achieved a high growth rate of 17.4% throughout the year, which provided support for economic growth, indicating that the “quasi-fiscal” represented by PPP was a significant force.

Although the growth rate of infrastructure construction declined in December last year, industry insiders predict that the growth rate of infrastructure investment this year will play a stable growth role.

"In the first half of this year, China will continue to increase its investment in infrastructure." Gao Yuwei, a researcher at the Institute of International Finance at the Bank of China, said that on the one hand, budget funds continue to be effective as early as possible, and related infrastructure expenditures are expected to be paid in time; on the other hand, investment The project is based on financial guarantees and adheres to comprehensive efforts such as finance, loans, and PPP to ensure the smooth implementation of major projects. It is expected that the investment in infrastructure will maintain a growth rate of nearly 20% in the first half of 2017, and related investments such as ecological protection and environmental governance are expected to maintain rapid growth.

According to Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, this year is a critical year for the implementation of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan,” and a large number of planned projects are expected to be approved and accelerated. At present, the urbanization rate in China is 57.35%, and the road to urbanization is still very long. There is plenty of room for investment growth. At present, the total amount of PPP project pools has reached 16 trillion yuan, and the total project investment this year is expected to exceed 20 trillion yuan. The implementation situation is expected to improve, and there will be a substantial boost to investment. This year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will remain at around 17%.

Huang Jianhui, dean of the China Minsheng Banking Research Institute, said that “after the change of local government, new infrastructure investment needs will be generated. Under the guidance of active fiscal policies and with the promotion of the PPP model, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a relatively high level of growth.”


"Belt and Road" accelerates development

The continuous advancement of the “One Belt and One Road” also brings a large amount of infrastructure investment demand. The State Council issued a "Circular on Several Measures for Expanding the Use of Foreign Capital to Make it More Open to the Outside World". It is clarified that in the future, it is necessary to further actively use foreign capital and support the participation of foreign capital in the construction of infrastructure through franchising.

In May, the "Belt and Road" International Cooperation Summit Forum will be held in Beijing. Guotai Junan analyst Han Qicheng said that this will build a cooperation platform to promote the "One Belt and One Road" construction. At the same time, the Central Economic Work Conference referred to the "One Belt and One Road" for two consecutive years. The Nineteenth Congress will be held soon. The "One Belt and One Road" will gain more policy stimulus effects.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce, cooperation between overseas investments and countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative has become a bright spot in 2016. For the entire year of 2016, domestic enterprises directly invested 14.53 billion U.S. dollars in countries along the “One Belt and One Road” initiative. By the end of 2016, domestic enterprises had established 56 large-scale cooperation zones in countries along the “One Belt and One Road”, with a total investment of 18.55 billion U.S. dollars and 1082 enterprises entering the zone, with a total output value of 50.69 billion U.S. dollars.

In addition, the recent reports on the work of the local governments of the two associations have all made arrangements for the “One Belt and One Road” jointing this year. Ping An Securities analyst Jin Jiaxin predicted that this year's "One Belt and One Road" related investment projects will enter the intensive landing period. Participating in project cooperation in the government and social capital cooperation (PPP) model will become a major highlight.

Many provinces and cities overweight in local infrastructure investment <br> <br> two sessions held one after another, the infrastructure-related issues in various provinces of the government work report in frequent, clear this year will vigorously overweight investment in infrastructure.

The Tianjin Municipal Government stated that it will increase investment in weak infrastructure, ecological and environmental protection, and make up for the shortcomings of development and people's livelihood. At the same time, establish the concept of operating the city, make good use of effective means of market-based allocation of resources, make overall plans for the promotion of urban underground infrastructure construction, improve urban functions, and increase urban value. Henan Province will take the form of open bidding for the market allocation of resources such as medical care, education, public networks, public transportation, and urban infrastructure. We will vigorously promote the construction of gas supply, water supply, and sewage waste disposal projects in a market-oriented manner, and further integrate PPP projects with the industry.

As a major province in the western region, Shaanxi Province clarified that it must make good use of the country’s support for the western region to strengthen the infrastructure construction policy, maintain the strength of infrastructure investment, increase investment in attracting investment, and actively promote the project to land, completing 2.27 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment throughout the year. .

Anhui Province pointed out that comprehensively promote the construction of railways, highways, navigation channels, aviation, water conservancy, power grids, oil and gas pipelines, information networks, and business platforms, and strive to build a modern comprehensive transportation system, energy system, water conservancy security system, network information system, and logistics system. Speed ​​up the completion of infrastructure infrastructure.

According to industry insiders, one of the major focuses of economic work this year is to implement and promote infrastructure construction. In a situation where there is still downward pressure on the economy, efforts to stabilize growth and increase the construction of major projects will become key tasks that will help stabilize the real economy to recover.

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