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Wang Jian, executive vice secretary-general and researcher of China Macroeconomics Association. National special contribution experts, won the "China's first Economic Reform Talent Award." His research interests include macroeconomics, economic reform, enterprise economic evaluation, social development and stability. Since the third quarter of this year, since realizing the possibility of overproduction, the CPC Central Committee has set forth the guidelines for macroeconomic policies and taken a crucial step toward overcoming the contradiction of overproduction. However, this is only the first step. Next year, we still need to attach great importance to the huge risk of over-production. We should consider whether the policy of boosting domestic demand and consumer spending can be highly targeted and whether "effective demand" can be created for the major surplus products. Western economic coping strategies are not suitable for China Excess is caused by unfair distribution, but specific to the current China is different. The overproduction in China was due to the emergence of new wealth groups in China's market-oriented reforms whose explosive demand for homes and cars in the late 1990s led to an investment boom that so far lasted for three years However, the upswing in investment does not occur in all industries but only in several industries that are most relevant to housing and automobiles, namely iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and energy. As a result, the industries that have excess and are about to occur These are mainly these industries. This is not the same as the investment in all industries in the market economy in the economic boom in the western world has been drastically increased. In the case of excess, the situation of over-generalization is different. This is the current peculiarity of China. Therefore, simply referring to the general policies and measures in overcoming the overproduction in the western market economy to deal with the excessively contradictions in China today may not be effective. For example, some people pin their hopes on the upcoming "new rural movement" in China and the expansion of rural consumption space as an important means of preventing overproduction. Some people also regard adjusting the income distribution structure of residents and raising the proportion of the income and consumption of most residents as expanding domestic demand It should be said that these things are important, they should all be done sooner or later, but these policy measures may not be effective in coping with the upcoming crisis of excess. Why do you say that? First of all, since the excess mainly occurs in several industries with the highest correlation with residential and automobile industries. For example, from the perspective of the major excess production capacity, from 2007 to 2010, there may be an excess of 200-300 million tons of steel and an excess of 10 million cars . Can we increase the spending power of rural residents and ordinary urban residents and absorb such a huge excess capacity? Now that the relevant departments are formulating plans for going to the countryside for consumer products such as home appliances, the amount of metal used in each refrigerator and washing machine is only a few tens of kilograms, while a car consumes one ton. A 100-square-meter house needs to be consumed 3 tons of steel, compared with refrigerators and other products, the consumption of metal materials is two orders of magnitude worse, so even if the main household appliances for rural residents per 100 households increased to the current level of urban residents (refrigerators from 25 % To 95% and washing machines from the current 7.7% to 95%), using less than 15 million tonnes of metal and only 5 million units. So, relative to hundreds of millions of tons of steel overcapacity, can only be a drop in the bucket. In addition, it will take a long time to adjust the income distribution gap between residents and improve the new rural movement. For example, in modern market-oriented economies, the transfer payment system of the government reallocates high-income groups and then low-income groups However, at present, China has not set up a complete personal credit information collection system, and there is no objective basis for the regulation of personal income. At the same time, China's tax system is still mainly based on the turnover tax. To adjust the income distribution, it is necessary to change it into a tax system based on income tax. These are not things that can be done in the short term. However, there is a significant overproduction In the next one or two years, the current issue of over-production is to deal with the current problem of over-production by raising the consumption level of ordinary residents in rural and urban areas because of the lack of relief. That is why although the macro-guidelines for increasing consumption are put forward, There is still a risk that it will be difficult to avoid the crisis of overproduction due to mismanagement of policies. Focusing on domestic investment and consumer demand, the need to prevent over-production crisis must create effective demand. In the context of expanding domestic demand, of course, we are still focusing on the two domestic needs of investment and consumption. From the perspective of consumption, it is necessary to increase the size of mortgage loans and increase the consumption of housing and automobiles. Since the early 1990s, the sales area of ​​residential buildings in Chinese cities has totaled 1.8 billion square meters. Based on a plot of 100 square meters, about 18 million urban residents have purchased housing, accounting for 18.5% of the total urban residents in China, In other words, more than 80% of urban residents have not bought commercial housing. At present, over 70% of urban residents in China own independent houses. However, most of these houses are "housing reform houses", and can not meet the needs of residents in terms of size, location and area, so there is still ample room for developing urban housing. Due to the income gap, most urban residents do not yet have the ability to purchase housing. In order to cope with the excess contradictions and start housing demand, the mortgage loan conditions must be greatly relaxed. One of the most important reasons for the gradual real estate bubble in the United States has been the Sept.11 attacks. Housing mortgage lending conditions in the United States are too lenient. For example, U.S. mortgage lenders allow for a "zero" down payment and can only ease down to the first five years only Interest, no repayment, the longest loan life of up to 60 years, and the loan ceiling from 500 million to 12 million US dollars. Although we do not need to learn how the United States uses a mortgage loan to create a bubble, it is still possible to start housing demand by relaxing the loan conditions. According to the statistics of 2004, about 20% of the employed population in urban areas in China now have a monthly income of 3,000 yuan. If the length of a residential mortgage loan is extended from the current 20 years to 30 years and drastically reduced The downpayment ratio, which allows "zero" down payments even during certain periods of time, may attract more than 25 million urban households into the home-buying market. A similar policy should be adopted for car consumption so that industries such as automobiles and real estate can absorb the absorptive capacity of surplus products such as steel and cement. From the investment perspective, rely on "low-cost housing" investment to drive investment growth. Investment accounts for 60% of the growth in demand in recent years. Maintaining a certain rate of investment growth is an important prerequisite for maintaining the economic growth rate during the 11th "Five-Year Plan" period. However, we can no longer continue to increase investment in industries that already have surplus, or we will end up quenching our thirst and endanger the future over-contradiction. In order to start the demand, the previous government engaged in a large amount of treasury bond investment. Its main investment area was infrastructure. At present, infrastructure construction is relatively saturated. However, the construction pace of low-rent housing in the city has been slow. At present, over 600 In cities, less than 150 engage in low-cost housing projects. From the perspective of the developed countries, there are 50% of low-rent houses in the urban population living in the government. If China has 1.2 billion urban population by 2030, half of them live in low-rent housing units, 25 square meters per capita will need 15 billion square meters If the investment is 3,000 yuan per square meter and the next 25 years will require nearly 50 trillion yuan of investment, it is normal and even more important to invest between 5 and 10 trillion yuan in low-rent housing during the 11th Five-Year Plan period Investment cast ", will be able to maintain the growth rate of investment under normal conditions. The formulation of "effective demand" seems to be beneficial to the wealthy class as it is to support able-bodied people to buy a house and to buy a car. However, if the crisis of overproduction occurs, a large number of business failures occur and massive unemployment occurs, the most troublesome thing is whether the people are unlucky. At a time when the crisis of overproduction has been approaching, the focus of macroeconomic policies can only be to prevent a possible crisis in the short term, maintain the pace of economic growth in China without interruption, and fundamentally solve the income distribution gap and increase the rural-urban majority Residents' income and consumption levels can only be resolved in the medium to long term
September 19, 2024