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Although the medical reform plan, fixed-point production, pricing mechanism and many other details have yet to be announced, the overall advancement of medical reform is still a gradual process, but the integration of some sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical industry has slowly been brewing.
The future pharmaceutical market will increase appreciably
The data shows that in the next 10 years, the national health expenditure will increase by 2.5 times as a whole, with an average annual increase of 13.5%. The proportion of personal payments will decline, and government investment will increase from more than 170 billion yuan in 2006 to more than 12,000 billion yuan in 2016.
The rural medical market will grow faster than the city. The per capita health expenditure in the rural areas will increase between 16% and 25.8% in the next 10 years. The capacity of the disease-accredited medical market will face more than 15 times expansion in the next 10 years. Therefore, a large number of "catastrophic co-ordination" drugs used in the third terminal market in rural areas are expected to take advantage of this. In addition, analysts believe that with the advancement of medical reform, biopharmaceutical industry in vitro diagnostic reagents, blood products and other industries will also usher in rapid growth.
The new medical reform program mentioned that “the basic medical insurance system covers all urban and rural residents, and the basic medical insurance for urban employees, basic medical insurance for urban residents, and new rural cooperative medical insurance (joint insurance) rate will reach 90% or more.†Medicare for urban residents to be covered, The community medical insurance and rural medical insurance market have attracted the attention of many pharmaceutical companies, and the urban employees' medical insurance market also has a huge market increase.
It is understood that the current personal medical insurance quota for urban employees is basically around 1,200 yuan. At present, the proportion of medical insurance for urban employees is about 60%; the medical insurance quota for the new rural cooperative medical insurance is around 100 yuan; the amount of medical insurance for urban residents is 400 yuan or so.
Li Yingpeng, a researcher at Galaxy Securities, believes that since urban employees’ personal health care coverage is much higher than that of urban residents and the new rural cooperative medical insurance market, once the target of 90% is achieved, the urban employee health insurance market will Bring a great increase to the pharmaceutical market.
The new medical reform program mentioned "gradually increase the level of fund-raising and overall planning, reduce the gap in the level of protection, and ultimately achieve the basic unity of the institutional framework." According to Wang Sheng, a researcher at Great Wall Securities, the amount of urban residents' medical insurance and the amount of new rural cooperative medical insurance are expected to continue to increase, reaching the level of medical insurance for urban employees.
Zhou Mingjie, a research fellow at CITIC Securities, believes that specialized drug manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities will become the most profitable enterprises in the reform of the medical security system.
There are also views that since the medicines used in basic medicines are strictly controlled by the government from production, circulation, and use, only a few large pharmaceutical companies with economies of scale will benefit.
Drug pricing mechanism needs to be refined
For the basic drug system, the new medical reform program mentioned that “the central government uniformly formulates and publishes a national essential drug list.†Li Yingpeng believes that this measure will significantly increase the degree of restraint for medical institutions. The state will implement tendered fixed-point production or centralized procurement. The implementation of a unified retail price and complete integration with the reimbursement system can avoid the incorporation of local interests.
Li Yingpeng believes that it may be the central government to determine the fixed-point manufacturers and distributors, but it may also be led by local governments. The impact of the two situations on the development of the pharmaceutical industry is very different. If it is led by the central government, there may be only a few companies or more than a dozen companies in the country to produce each medicine, which is easy to manage; on the contrary, different regions may bid for different production. Business, the formation of local protectionism.
According to Zhou Mingjie, whether it is the central government or the local government, when piloting, it is possible that local governments will first select some enterprises to push across the country. Finally, it is also more likely that large national enterprises will be selected.
The mechanism for the formation of the drug price involved in the plan stipulates that "the new drug and patented drug will gradually implement the pre-marketing drug economic evaluation system, and the post-listing price of generic drugs shall be subject to the low-pricing system." Zhou Rui, a researcher at China Investment Securities, believes that this pair of research and development Innovative pharmaceutical companies are major advantages, but they are not conducive to generic pharmaceutical companies.
Wang Hao believes that most of the drugs included in the basic drug list have gone through more than 20 price cuts since 2005, leaving little room for price reduction. The medical reform program also mentions that the company's reasonable profit margins, coupled with the use of drugs in the basic drug list for primary medical institutions, are therefore good for the overall domestic general medicine. At present, the hospital's differential fare increase system has caused hospitals to lose their incentive to use imported drugs. The price of imported drugs is generally two or three times more expensive than domestic drugs, and it is inevitable that the hospital will face a squeezed market share.
On October 14th, the new medical reform plan announced by the National Development and Reform Commission began to solicit opinions, among which the explicit provision for “increasing government input†was considered as one of the highlights of the plan. Some analysts predict that in the next three years, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate due to the gradual increase in the number of government-funded recipients and universal medical insurance.
December 01, 2024