From the end of the year to the end of the year, how will the subsidy policy next year become the topic of concern for the automotive industry in the new energy vehicle industry? A few days ago, online rumors about subsidies adjustment were numerous. The first electric network was informed in the middle of this year that the subsidy policy will be adjusted. However, the current version of the Internet has not been confirmed, and the specific plan is still being revised. The time of release will be at the end of December this year. According to a discussion plan previously obtained by the first electric power network, there are roughly three directions: First, the sub miles for subsidizing mileage is more detailed, and the mileage is encouraged to be longer; second, the battery energy density requirement is increased; The coefficient of consumption is divided into subsidies. According to a source close to policy development, the adjustment of subsidies on the one hand is constantly highlighting Fu Youyou's policy orientation, and on the other hand, there are also financial budgetary pressures. Policy instability brings many variables The continuous changes in policies give the car great pressure. For a traditional car company, it takes at least 3 to 5 years from the design to the manufacture of a car, and the overall planning of a company generally takes 5 to 10 years. And the instability of the policies will bring huge changes to businesses and markets. Dong Yang, executive vice chairman of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, recently issued a document stating that due to the adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles will have a bad start at the beginning of this year. He suggested that the first is not to adjust the technical conditions for new energy vehicle subsidies. Second, implement the retreat of the subsidy according to past commitments. Third, local governments are not required to subsidize products, and let local governments use subsidies primarily for charging pile construction and charging operations. A related person in charge of a traditional passenger vehicle company also stated that policy support promotes the development of the industry, but its instability also brings huge pressure on the company, and is not conducive to the sustainable development of the industry. This is particularly stressful for the new vehicle builders. A related person of a new car manufacturer stated that this was first reflected in the price. As a new brand, the constant price change is not conducive to brand establishment and promotion. In addition, he also pointed out that the current fragmented market makes sales impossible, and hopes that the future double-credit policy can be used instead of making up for a sustained and stable policy. Otherwise, not only car companies, but the related suppliers are also very hard. The person in charge of the relevant new energy commercial vehicle company, which is relatively affected, said that such change is not as good as eliminating subsidies and giving more sustainable policies such as road rights. Or usher in new energy vehicles There are also views that if the subsidy continues to adjust for the negative effects of the industry in 2018, it will be far less than the 2017 decline. According to Guojin Securities, first of all, even if the subsidy amount is reduced by 40%, it will be reduced from a maximum of 450,000 to 270,000. Compared with the reduction of 1 million from 1 million in 2017, the impact is relatively less significant; The market takes a long time to coordinate upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. It is expected that this time, the coordination efficiency will be much higher. Thirdly, the upstream cost has continued to decline, and the downstream customer demand has been rigid. The price acceptance is high. The output in 2018 is expected to increase significantly compared to 2017. The overall gross profit margin of the company will not be too great. At the same time, Guojin Securities also pointed out that the subsidy reduction is negative for the industry as a whole, or it will bring new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter. The rush has not yet arrived, and the stock market is first hit. On November 15th, in the A-share market, the biggest declines in the number of Jinlong and Yutong buses reached 10% and 8%, and the auto stocks in the Hong Kong stock market generally fell. Among them, Zhengtong Auto and BYD Group led the decline, falling more than 5%. Electric cars, Geely cars, Harmony cars and Beijing cars all dropped by more than 3%. Recently, Xin Guobin, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed that China has begun to study and formulate a timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. New energy vehicle stocks are on the rise. 8 years of 7 related subsidy policies The “Notice on Financial Support Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles 2016-2020†as early as 2015 pointed out that the subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will decrease by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2019-2020 will be in 2016. Based on a 40% drop. This means that in accordance with the original policy, the 2018 subsidies are the same as in 2017. The subsidy policy announced at the end of last year has already undergone substantial adjustments on this basis. More than 50% of the country's compensation must not be supplemented, and higher requirements are placed on technologies such as energy density. In addition, new energy vehicles purchased by non-individual users are required to apply for subsidies, and they must travel 30,000 kilometers (excluding special vehicles for the operation). The state’s change in subsidy policies was far more than this one. From January 2009, the “Notice on Developing Pilot Projects for Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles Demonstration and Promotion†was issued for the first time on the hybrid use of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for public service. Vehicle subsidies, by the end of 2016, the "Circular on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" was issued, and about seven policies were issued in eight years or so. Despite the adjustment of the subsidy policy, the state's support for new energy vehicles will not change. Before the launch of the new energy car special number plate, followed by the promotion of dual-point policy, I believe that as the new energy vehicle market driven by the policy-driven to the market, the future use of the level of policy will be more stable and more convenient.
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May 05, 2024