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Economic Perspectives: Domestic oil prices and crude oil prices have been hanging upside down for a long time. Especially since February this year, oil prices have continuously exceeded the two thresholds of 120 US dollars and 130 US dollars. In your opinion, why did the National Development and Reform Commission adjust at this time? Product oil price?
Dong Xiucheng: Due to the rising oil price in the international oil market, the domestic and foreign oil product price upside down has been aggravated, causing a series of joint problems. For example, domestic refinery companies have suffered huge losses and insufficient processing power. Refining companies other than the two major oil groups have basically stopped production or The maintenance of semi-discontinued production has caused a downward trend in the supply of domestic refined oil products; due to the increase in the wholesale price of refined oil products, the profitability of gas stations has been greatly reduced, so that some gas stations outside the two major groups have stopped or reduced their wholesale and sale of refined oil products. Shortage of market supply; In addition, due to interest-driven, smuggling of oil products abroad is becoming more serious...
The main problem is that the shortage of refined oil products in the market has spread from one part of the country to another, and this has led to social inconsistencies. The above reasons prompted the government to adopt a price adjustment policy.
Economic Perspectives: After China raises domestic refined oil prices, will it effectively reduce the current tight domestic oil situation?
Dong Xiucheng: After the increase in refined oil prices, it is expected to slow down a series of problems caused by the price difference between domestic and foreign countries. Oil and gas stimulate the improvement of processing power, suppression of smuggling, and hoarding of enterprises. Therefore, I will judge to ease the tight market supply situation to some extent.
Economic Perspectives: After the refined oil prices have been raised, it will have an impact on the cost structure of many industries. What is the impact?
Dong Xiucheng: The petroleum industry is a long industrial chain. Some of the chain links have already been marketized. For example, chemical products are highly market-oriented, and prices are basically determined by the relationship between market supply and demand. Of course, the increase in refined oil prices will inevitably affect the transportation industry, agriculture, and fisheries, but because price transmission is a gradual process, it will take time to observe. I generally do not think it will make a big impact, and this does not need to be overly concerned.
Economic Perspectives: Although China only accounts for less than 10% of global oil consumption. However, there are still critics who believe that China's depressing the price of refined oil by companies and consumers has hindered the normal market mechanism, which is caused by the soaring world oil prices and the weakening of demand. How do you view this view?
Dong Xiucheng: China is a fast-growing, newly industrialized country with manufacturing as its mainstay, and it does have a certain effect on the growth of oil consumption. However, nearly half of China’s oil consumption depends on its own production, and the amount of oil imported from the international market is still limited. Therefore, it is an over-hyped view that the Chinese economy has pushed up oil prices. In addition, the Chinese government has lowered the price of refined oil products or increased the price of refined oil products. This has little effect on the supply and demand relationship in the market. Because the Chinese economy is a manufacturing-dominated structure, oil consumption is relatively “rigid†and oil prices increase in the short term. It will not have a major impact on consumer demand. Therefore, the above logic does not hold. However, in the long run, the integration of oil prices with the market will be conducive to the adjustment of China's economic structure and changes in the economic growth model, which will be conducive to energy-saving emission reduction and lower energy consumption per unit of GDP.
(Dong Xiucheng Petroleum University, School of Business Administration Secretary and Associate Dean, an authoritative petroleum expert. He used to be a member of the former National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Bureau National Energy Security Strategy Experts Group, China National Petroleum Corporation Corporation System Construction and Reform Working Group Leader, etc. .)
On June 23, on the series of issues raised after the increase in domestic oil prices, a reporter from the “Economics Daily†interviewed Dong Xiucheng and interpreted the relevant hot spots one by one.
May 18, 2023